How can the Indian Middle Class impact the political set up?
One vote does not make a difference, this is the common adage of a middle class Indian who does not vote. However, one vote from several middle class Indians can make a huge difference.
Indian Middle Class can significantly impact the existing political setup. Below is a detailed statistical analysis which precisely proves the point.
Based on the data available for the 2004 General Elections (Source: www.eci.gov.in), Table 1 below shows the vote share of winners as percentage of the total eligible voters (electorate) in all LS seats across top 20 Indian states (ranked according to the urban population and number of Lok Sabha seats in that state).
For example, of the total 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, in 59 seats, the winners’ vote share was less than 20% of the total eligible voters. In simple arithmetic, if there are 100 eligible voters in a particular constituency, and on the election day only 50 of them voted, the contestant who got roughly 20 votes (out of the 50 votes) won the election from that constituency.
Table 1. Vote Share (in %) of Winners in LS seats as Percentage of Electors in those constituencies
|
Vote Share (in %) for '04 LS Elections |
|
<20 |
20-30 |
31-40 |
41-50 |
51-60 |
61-70 |
Maharashtra |
6 |
30 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Tamil Nadu |
0 |
3 |
31 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
Uttar Pradesh |
59 |
18 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
West Bengal |
0 |
1 |
22 |
16 |
2 |
1 |
Andhra Pradesh |
0 |
3 |
29 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
Gujarat |
5 |
20 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Karnataka |
0 |
15 |
13 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Madhya Pradesh |
9 |
15 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Delhi |
0 |
6 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Rajasthan |
3 |
21 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Kerala |
0 |
2 |
18 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Punjab |
0 |
9 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Bihar |
5 |
21 |
14 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Orissa |
0 |
7 |
12 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
Jharkhand |
2 |
10 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Haryana |
0 |
6 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Chattisgarh |
0 |
9 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
J&K |
5 |
0 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Uttaranchal |
1 |
4 |
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
Manipur |
0 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(Source: www.eci.gov.in and www.censusindiamaps.net)
From the above table we can conclude –
- For 17% of Lok Sabha seats (95), the winner’s vote share was less than 20% of the total eligible voters (electorate) in that area
- For 40% of Lok Sabha seats (218), the winner’s vote share was between 20% - 30% of the total eligible voters (electorate) in that area
Overall, for nearly 56% Lok Sabha seats (313), winners vote share was between 0-30 percent of total electorate in that area.
With such a low vote share for the winners, it is highly probable that if more electors go out to vote, the winners might either lose or face a tough fight in their respective constituencies. This will definitely shake up the political system and further make the politicians accountable, which is what our Mission states. |
